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April Surge in Snow Has Small Impact on Drought
USAgNet - 05/15/2013
May measurements confirm April forecasts: NRCS hydrologists predict reduced spring and summer water supply for much of the West. April saw a surge in snow in many places but didn’t make up the shortfall during previous months.
"For much of the West, April was wetter than January, February and March combined," said NRCS Meteorologist Jan Curtis. "But it was too little, too late."
NRCS hydrologists use May streamflow forecasts to confirm and refine the April forecasts. Though recent snow made small improvements in some areas, most changes are insignificant.
"California, southern and eastern Oregon, Nevada, southern Utah, southern Colorado and especially New Mexico will experience major water shortages due to sustained drought conditions and low reservoir storage," says NRCS Hydrologist Tom Perkins. "I haven't seen it this bad in New Mexico since I started
forecasting for the Snow Survey Program in 1983."
As of May 1, USDA's Secretary Tom Vilsack designated many counties in Western statesas eligible for USDA drought assistance. Water resource managers face difficult decisions because of this shortage. Western states should prepare for potentially increased vulnerability to forest and rangeland fires and
mandatory water restrictions. In addition, wildlife that depends on surface water is going to suffer.
There are a few exceptions to the dry forecasts. The North Cascades and the headwaters of the Missouri and Columbia Rivers are near normal.
The May forecast is the fifth of six monthly forecasts. The forecast compares the current level of water content in snowpack in the 13 Western states with historical data to help the region’s farmers, ranchers, water managers, communities and other stakeholders make informed decisions about water use and future
availability.
NRCS scientists analyze the snowfall, air temperature, soil moisture and other measurements taken from remote climate sites to develop the water supply forecasts.
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