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USDA Crop Data Not Matching Up with Others' Assessments
USAgNet - 07/02/2019

There were surprising numbers in the annual U.S. Department of Agriculture's acreage estimates for corn and soybeans released Friday. Corn-planted area for all purposes in 2019 is estimated at 91.7 million, a 3% increase from last year. Soybean-planted area is estimated at 80 million acres, down 10% from last year.

However, the average estimate from industry analysts in advance for U.S. corn was 86.66 million, which is significantly lower than the survey's figures. Those estimates took into consideration the rain and flooding that has affected U.S. farmers this year.

AccuWeather reports that for soybeans, the industry analysts' average estimate was 84.36, a higher estimate than the survey's data for soybeans.

"There's a difference of opinion on what reality is," said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls. "The USDA just put out their opinion, but that's not the opinion a lot of others have."

It's also inconsistent from previous USDA estimates, although this USDA/NASS survey is separate and independent from the USDA's own May and June estimates. The USDA estimated corn planted acreage at 92.8 and then 89.8 in May and June, respectively.

For soybean planted acreage, the USDA in both May and June estimated 84.6 million acres.

For comparison, in 2018 there were 89.1 million acres of corn planted and 89.2 million acres of soybean planted.

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