U.S. Winter Wheat Crop Smallest Since 1965

By: Ryan Hanrahan, University of Illinois' FarmDoc project - 06/15/2026

Reuters' Karl Plume reported that "the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday cut its U.S. ?winter wheat crop outlook by 2% from a ?month earlier as a harsh drought in the Plains cut its hard red winter wheat production view to the lowest since ?1957? and total winter wheat production to the lowest since 1965.

"The USDA projected U.S. winter wheat production in ?the 2026/27 season at 1.030 billion bushels, down ?from its forecast of 1.048 billion last month and ?well below last year's winter crop of 1.402 billion bushels," Plume reported. "?Production of hard red winter wheat, the largest variety grown in the United States, was projected to fall to 497 million ?bushels, down from an outlook for 515 million last ?month and well below last year's 804-million-bushel crop."

"The drop in production has ?heaped ?pressure on U.S. farmers already struggling with rising fuel and fertilizer prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and trade disruptions caused by U.S. President ?Donald Trump's tariff ?battles," Plume reported. "The wheat ?harvest is underway in key wheat states including Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, although some ?farmers, particularly in far western areas of the ?wheat ?belt, have found little to no grain to gather."

Successful Farming's Mariah Squire reported earlier this week that "according to the latest USDA data, the nation's winter wheat crop is in its worst condition since 2006. In its Crop Progress report, released Monday, the department rated 46% of the crop poor or very poor, which is the highest combined percentage since June 2006."

"It's yet to be seen whether this season's crop will surpass 48% poor or very poor, the highest percentage of poor or very poor winter wheat recorded by the USDA since as far back as the fall of 1998. That percentage was reached in June 2006," Squire reported. "One-fifth of the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated very poor, and about one-fourth was rated poor. Most of the rest was rated fair (29%) or good (21%). Only 4% was rated excellent."

"For five of the top 18 winter wheat-growing states, at least 57% of their crop was rated poor or very poor, according to the latest data," Squire reported. "Nebraska's winter wheat is in the worst shape of all top states. In the latest Crop Progress report, USDA rated 82% of the crop poor or very poor. Fourteen percent was rated fair, and 4% was rated good. None of the crop was rated excellent."

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